Draw-ja Vu

It’s been a couple of days since the World Cup draw was made, which means it’s been about a fortnight since the World Cup draw started…

As much as I was excited that Scotland were in the World Cup draw for the second competition running, and the first without the caveat of being a playoff team since France 98, everyone knew FIFA and the USA were going to combine to make an absolute farce of this draw. They were always going to milk it until it turned into cheese (fittingly lifting that metaphor from a Robbie Williams lyric) and yet somehow no one came close to predicting just how bad it would be.

From literally inventing a peace prize to give to the current US president – no doubt because Nobel didn’t give him one – to dragging out the presentation to ensure that no ball was pulled out for well over an hour and even then it took another fifteen minutes for them to draw a team that wasn’t just a pre-allocated host nation, I for one was glad that I was out to see Jimmy Carr at the Hydro and missed the whole thing.

However, by the time Scotland’s name was drawn out of the Uncle Sam red white and blue hat (that’s a joke and yet somehow a missed opportunity for the patriots there), almost immediately those of us old enough to remember France 98 were twitching as the PTSD kicked in. Group C already had Brazil and Morocco in it, and as African nations couldn’t be paired together, there was a point that only us and Norway – the other team from our group from France 98 – that could have been allocated to it. It just depended which one of us came out of that hat first, and it was us.

My own initial instinct about this draw was one of anti-climax. We’ve waited 28 years for this moment. A lot has changed in that time. I’m a dad of two in my mid-40s at this point. Back in 1998, I had just left school and was heading off to university that summer. With Celtic having won the league for the first time in a decade, it’s one of my favourite periods of time!

But because we haven’t been back since, the failure of that group stage has lingered in our memories for nearly three decades. Particularly that last World Cup game being a 3-0 defeat to Morocco in a game that we had hopes of winning and progressing from (although Norway shocking Brazil did end up sending Morocco home as well that day) so to be paired with them specifically once again just picks at the scab of a wound that’s never really healed.

Not only that, but we’ve got Brazil. Again. This will be our ninth World Cup appearance, and we’ve now been paired with Brazil in five of them! 1974 was a goalless draw. 1982 had the infamous David Narey opening goal that just annoyed them into beating us 4-1. 1990 had that late goal and late Scotland missed chance to equalise to sink our hopes (albeit a day later as we were one of the unlucky third placed teams). 1998 had us open the tournament, go behind quickly but get ourselves level only for Tom Boyd to score the winner… for them.

But Brazil aside, this isn’t actually that familiar a group. It just feels like it because Morocco is so associated with our last appearance at the World Cup. The reality is that we’ve only ever faced Morocco once, in that infamous game. And if that isn’t enough, we have never ever faced Haiti. They are an entirely new opponent for Scotland. That’s pretty cool.

This is also the first time ever that we’ve gone to a World Cup and not had to face another European side. Our first appearance in 1954 in Switzerland has us face Austria. Four years later in Sweden we had both Yugoslavia and France. Our next appearance in 1974 in West Germany once again saw us take on Yugoslavia. The famous Archie Gemmill goal was against the Netherlands in Argentina in 1978. It was the Soviet Union in 1982 in Spain, both Denmark and West Germany in Mexico in 1986, we beat Sweden in Italy in 1990 and as mentioned earlier we got our last World Cup point against Norway in France in 1998.

This is what qualification for the World Cup really means. We’ve played European sides repeatedly since France 98. We’re up against them in qualifiers repeatedly, UEFA have added the Nations League campaigns in recent years which we’ve largely done well in, and of course we’ve been to the last two Euros as well. So it’s nice to think we’re going to have competitive matches against teams from CONCACAF, CAF and CONMEBOL for a change! We haven’t faced a CONCACAF team competitively since Costa Rica at Italia 90!

The draw is also, arguably, about as good as it could get in terms of the order of games for us. We open in Boston on June 13th (over there anyway) against Haiti, a team who are back at the World Cup for the first time since 1974. If you think our wait for another qualification has been long, they’ve got us beat by another 24 years! They played in West Germany back then, lost 3-1 to Italy, lost 7-0 to Poland, and lost 4-1 to Argentina.

Haiti are one of the teams who have benefited from the expansion to 48 teams. CONCACAF now has six qualification spots plus another two in the intercontinental playoffs. Admittedly, three of those six places have gone to the hosts, but that’s still three more spots than they had for the last World Cup which were scooped up as they often are by Canada, Mexico and the USA. Costa Rica came through the playoffs to also get to Qatar.

But lets not underestimate Haiti here. Yes, last qualifying time out they didn’t make the last eight of CONCACAF qualifying because they lost to Canada in the previous round. This time they finished second behind Dick Advocaat’s Curacao (who also later qualified) in the second round and the won their third round group ahead of Honduras and Costa Rica.

I’ve said that name three times now… definitely don’t underestimate a CONCACAF team. We’ve been there. It’s my first World Cup memory as I don’t remember 1986. Please don’t repeat this for my kids!

Nevertheless, there’s no doubt Haiti are the team in our group that everyone will want to beat. They’re the lowest ranked team at 84 in the FIFA World rankings, and with third place teams qualifying if they’re good enough then picking up even just a single win definitely helps. We get them first, so if we can get that win on the board then the pressure actually eases for our other two games. And that third place qualifier also means there’s very little chance of us being screwed over like we were in 1974 when we got the group whipping boy first only for Yugoslavia and Brazil to both beat them by more and then every other game was a draw so we went home on goal difference unbeaten!

As 1990 proved, getting a win on the board and finishing third isn’t a guarantee of getting through though. Every other team that went through in third place also got a draw. So beating Haiti may not be enough on its own. But it would be a great start, and it’s not unheard of to get through with just that one win. Northern Ireland did it at Euro 2016 and Ukraine did it at Euro 2020. Hungary missed out at Euro 2024 on goal difference because Slovenia got their three points from three draws. So goal difference might also matter.

Then we get Morocco next on June 19th, again in Boston. For those travelling to the tournament, Scotland’s fixtures aren’t too bad. The first two games are in the same location, with the third one being an internal flight down the coast. I’m sure Daris has probably cancelled a few of those hotel bookings by now!

Morocco are a far better team than when we faced them in France. Currently ranked 11, they are the highest placed CAF team as everyone in the top ten is either from UEFA or CONMEBOL. Morocco, of course, became the first African side to reach the World Cup semi finals in Qatar. They ultimately finished fourth as they lost to France in that semi and then to Croatia in the third place match, but they still got there and set a new high water mark for African nations. It wasn’t pretty, as they beat Portugal 1-0 in the quarter final after having beaten Spain in the last sixteen on penalties after a goalless draw. They just solidly made their way through by being hard to beat.

Ominously though, Morocco seem to have got better. They had a perfect record in qualifying. Eight games, eight wins. Niger, Tanzania, Zambia and Congo don’t seem like the biggest names to beat, but they did it. Eritrea were in there as well but they withdrew before anything was played. Congo were suspended for a bit but then reinstated. Niger finished runners up, but not good enough to make it to the intercontinental playoff. It wasn’t much of a group to be honest.

If you want to see what Morocco are made of now, then the African Cup of Nations is just around the corner and they’re hosting it. They’ll be opening the tournament on December 21st against Comoros before playing Mali on December 26th and Zambia on December 29th. The tournament runs until the final on January 18th and no one will be surprised if Morocco are involved in that. Channel 4 have exclusive rights to the tournament so that’s where you’ll want to be looking in on our World Cup opponents over the festive period.

For me, this is our chance of revenge for 1998. It’s bugged us for nearly three decades how that night went. There’s a demon to exorcise here. It’s a tough ask, especially as Morocco will be coming off whatever result they get against Brazil in the first game. There is also a chance this game could be a draw, if they play like they did at the last World Cup and we play like we know we can and just be solid at the back. If we draw this after beating Haiti, we’re already all but through to the knockout stage. You don’t go out with a win and a draw, you just don’t. It hasn’t happened at any of the three 24-team Euros, or any of the similar sized AFCoNs. It also didn’t happen at World Cup 1986, 1990 or 1994 either. 1982 had a different set up with a second group stage so third place teams didn’t progress.

Beat Morocco though… and we’re no longer talking about third place with six points out of six. I mean we could be, but it would also need Morocco to have beaten Brazil in the first game and us be heading for three teams finishing on six points. Not unheard of! Argentina finished third in their group in 1994 with six points behind Nigeria and Bulgaria on goal difference and then head to head.

Our last game of the group stage is of course Brazil. For that we travel down to Miami on June 24th. Forgetting what I just said, by this point it’s also possible that Brazil have beaten Morocco in the first game, and then Haiti in the second. They could already be through as well. If we’re on four points and they’re on six, we just shake on it and take the draw. They win the group, we finish second, job done and we move on. Or we nick a late winner and top the group, just for badness. If we’re both on six, this game just decides the top two as we’re both through already.

Yes I know I’m being overly optimistic with this. It’s also quite possible we do what we’ve done in just about every time and go into the last game needing something to progress. We might beat Haiti, lose to Morocco, and be needing that draw just to get us over the line. Which may not suit Brazil, they might need a win themselves. There’s so many permutations that by game three just about anything could happen. We can revisit that when the time comes in the summer. I may have cut back on the blogs this campaign but you can bet I’ll be up for doing them during the World Cup!

This may not be vintage Brazil side, but they’re still ranked number 5 in the World. The eyeopener is the fact taht they finished fifth in the CONMEBOL qualification group. That was oddly tight though as other than Argentina running away with it just about everyone else who qualified was separated by a single point. Ecuador finished second with 29, Colombia, Uruguay, Brazil and Paraguay all finished with 28. Paraguay actually won more games than Brazil, but also lost more. Although it should be noted that Ecuador were deducted points for some admin error relating to the last World Cup qualifying, so they could have been further ahead. Not that it mattered, they all got there. It’s Bolivia that ended up in the playoff, and they were several points further behind the pack.

Brazil have the feel of Germany about them. When the Euro 2024 draw was initially made, I was delighted we got the host nation. They were not in a good place at that point, but they got their act together ahead of the tournament and ended up blowing us away in that opening game. The may have lost out to the eventual winners Spain in the quarter final, but it was a close thing and they still say they were denied a stonewall penalty that would have made all the difference. The point is they got better in the time, helped by the change of head coach from Herr Flick (never not funny for anyone who remembers Allo Allo) to Herr Nagelsmann.

Well, in May this year Brazil appointed Carlo Ancelotti as head coach. They’re slowly building back up and by the time the World Cup comes around I’m sure they’ll be in the place Ancelotti wants them to be. So I’m not making that mistake again!

The Brazil game will take care of itself. If they need something, that wouldn’t be great. If we need something, that might be worse. We really need to be doing our work in the first two games to the point that if we do then we can just go out and enjoy the Brazil game. How great would it be to actually go into the final game knowing we’ve already qualified? It would be like Euro 2024 qualifying all over again!

Returning to my earlier point, I know this is Scotland we’re talking about. We always do things the hard way, and then fail anyway. France 98 saw us lose the opener, draw the second game, and then lost the third. A pattern we have repeated at the last two Euros. We haven’t won a finals game since we beat Switzerland 1-0 at Euro 96, and we haven’t won a World Cup finals game since we beat Sweden 2-1 at Italia 90.

I’d say it’s long overdue, wouldn’t you?

But Steve Clarke’s men have been smashing “long overdue” for the past six years now. We hadn’t qualified for anything for over twenty years, but they got us to Euro 2020 and we got to play at Hampden and Wembley on the big stage. We hadn’t had an away trip for a tournament since France 98, and they got us to Euro 2024 and everyone who went had a ball in Germany. We hadn’t qualified for a World Cup since France 98, and they’ve now got us to North America next year.

The one final thing that irks though is the timing of the games. Our first World Cup match in 28 years will kick off at 9pm Boston time on June 13th. That’s 2am oor time on June 14th. The only saving grace is that’s the early hours of Sunday morning. Our second game is slightly better… it’s an 11pm oor time kick off on June 19th, which again is mercifully a Friday night. But the midweek final game on June 24th being an 11pm kick off as well is a real kick in the mummy daddy button.

If like me you’ve got kids who are excited to see Scotland at the first World Cup of their lifetime, chances are you’re going to need to wake them up to watch them. And it’s June, so if it’s a school night like that last game, maybe we need to have a wee word with John Swinney and see if the schools can’t finish up a few days early for the summer holidays. Especially if, as always happens, it’s crucial to us making the knockout stages.

Be honest, who’s sending their kid to school after we beat Brazil to qualify for the knockout stages of the World Cup for the first time ever on the last week before the holidays?!

That’s the promised land. The last piece of the puzzle that no Scotland manager has managed to put in place. Steve Clarke might be the first man to lead us to three finals, but he’s still not managed to get out of a group stage yet just as all his predecessors from Beattie to Walker to Ormond to McLeod to Stein to Ferguson to Roxburgh to Brown didn’t either.

Yep, nine World Cups, nine different guys in charge.

Now we know the path that lies ahead of us, hopefully we can follow it into the last thirty two. But unlike our neighbours who for once didn’t get an easy draw (indeed it’s arguably the toughest group in terms of world rankings), I’m not going to chart our way through to the final just yet. I’m not even looking at where the potential last thirty two ties are, and not just because I know how difficult it is to work out the third place team location!

For now, I just want to get to next summer without a long list of injuries and maybe some decent friendly results in March – whoever we end up playing then. The build up to Euro 2024 is still too fresh in the mind after all.

It’s still another half a year to wait until the World Cup kicks off, and time for the excitement to die down a bit for the time being. But as the summer approaches, I’m sure it’ll ramp up again once more. For now, given those kick off times, I’m off to see how well alcohol mixes with caffeine… I’m sure it’s fine, vodka and red bull is a thing, right?

(Disclaimer: SFF take no responsibility for your drinking habits and have precisely zero medical experts. Please drink responsibly!)