Smash and Zagreb

Match day three of the Nations League sees Scotland visiting Croatia, with a 5pm oor time kick off over in Zagreb.

Croatia seem to be one of those teams that are perpetually a dark horse, and yet they have a record that really should have long since meant that no one is surprised when they do well.

It’s still less than thirty years since Croatia were able to take part in competitive international action independently. Following the break-up of Yugoslavia, they were admitted to UEFA and FIFA in 1993, just a bit too late to take part in qualification for World Cup 94. For Euro 96, however, not only did they qualify but they made it through to the quarter final where they lost 2-1 to eventual winners Germany. They then went one better at World Cup 98 by making it to the semi final where they lost 2-1 to hosts and eventual winners France. They then finished third by beating the Dutch 2-1 in the third place match. Not bad for a first ever appearance!

They have, of course, since surpassed even that. In the past two world cups they’ve lost 4-2 to France in the final in Russia in 2018, and again finished third in Qatar in 2022 by beating Morocco 2-1, having lost 3-0 to eventual winners Argentina in the semi final.

They’ve actually only failed to qualify for tournaments twice since they were first eligible to compete. In Euro 2000 qualifying, they finished third in their qualifying group behind what was left of Yugoslavia and Ireland, and it was a similar story for World Cup 2010 qualifying finishing behind England and Ukraine.

They were also runners up in the last Nations League, losing to Spain on penalties in the final last summer, having finished third in their group in each of the previous two Nations League A campaigns. Losing to Spain is no shame as you may remember how Spain haven’t been beaten competitively since they lost at Hampden, going on to win both the Nations League and Euro 2024 in the process. Well, Croatia were the only team not to have lost in 90 minutes to them in that time (Spain have since drawn with Serbia in the Nations League).

Having said all that, Croatia were disappointed with how Euro 2024 went. Like everyone else, they lost to Spain in the group stage, but it was conceding injury time goals against both Albania and Italy that meant that they picked up only two points and were one of the two third placed teams not to progress to the last sixteen.

Many thought star midfielder and captain Luka Modric would retire after that disappointment in Germany, but he’s still going strong in this current campaign and scored the only goal of the game in their last outing at home to Poland.

That came after their opening game defeat away to Portugal, Diogo Dalot scoring at both ends before Cristiano Rolando got the winner, and his 900th career goal. (Apologies for the video, the UEFA online rights seem to be a mess at the moment)

That should be a familiar story, given he also got the winner against us a few days later. Scott McTominay had given us the lead, but Bruno Fernandes pulled Portugal level before the 901st goal ensured the hosts picked up all three points.

That defeat for Scotland came after our opening day defeat at home to Poland. Sebastian Szymanski and a Robert Lewandowski penalty had them leading 2-0 at half time, but Billy Gilmour got us back into it at the start of the second half before Scott McTominay’s equaliser. But another penalty in injury time from Nicola Zalewski gave the visitors all three points.

Despite Croatia’s great record over the last thirty years, Scotland actually have a remarkably good record against them. Indeed, the most recent meeting at Hampden at Euro 2020 is the only time Croatia have beaten Scotland in six attempts. Nicola Vlasic had given them the lead before Callum McGregor scored Scotland’s first finals goal in 23 years to pull Scotland level. But Luka Modric and Ivan Perisic ensured Croatia emerged winners and progressed out of the group stage at our expense.

The first three meetings between the sides were all draws, the first two of which came in qualification for World Cup 2002. The first of those came in Croatia, where Alen Boksic gave the hosts the lead only for Kevin Gallacher to level the game a few minutes later.

I’ll save the other two draws for next month since they were home games for Scotland. The only other meeting in Croatia came in qualification for World Cup 2014 where Robert Snodgrass got the only goal of the game.

If Scotland are to have any ambitions in this Nations League campaign, you feel like we have to get something from tonight’s game. A draw would be decent, although we’d still be lagging behind with a difficult home game to come.

A win would put us right back in the mix, with Poland hosting Portugal in the other game it could potentially see three teams on three points with two home games for us still to come. Then again, a defeat tonight could possibly see us six points behind all three teams and pretty much out of the running already.

We won’t know for sure until later on tonight. While our game is the early evening kick off, the game in Warsaw doesn’t kick off until 7.45pm oor time. I’d love to tell you where you can watch it, but again the TV rights seem to be a bit of a mess for this campaign. Viaplay either do or don’t want to have football rights depending on what mood they’re in. At least our game, as with last month, is on ITV.

After tonight, Poland get to host Croatia on Tuesday night whilst Scotland are back at Hampden to host Portugal at the same time. Hopefully our hearts are still in it by the time that game comes around.

Good luck to Scotland this evening!