I’m going to get this out of the way first… I wasn’t happy on Wednesday night. Despite gifting several chances, one of which Shaqiri beautifully finished off for the equaliser after Scott McTominay’s opener, it really felt like the Swiss were there for the taking. Grant Hanley hitting the post was as close as we came, although Callum McGregor putting Andy Robertson in behind only for his lovely square ball to be cleared almost managed to get the winner too. But sadly it wasn’t to be, and we have to settle for the 1-1 draw that keeps us in contention going into the final game.
Call me the cringe guy at the end of the bar, but I can’t help but think that we’ve seen this story far, far too many times.
The last two tournaments we’ve played in have even played out exactly the same way. Defeat in the opening game (2-1 to Brazil in World Cup 1998, 2-0 to Czech Republic in Euro 2020), a draw in the second game (1-1 with Norway in World Cup 1998, 0-0 with England in Euro 2020) and just as our hopes are up we get the killer blow with defeat in the third game (3-0 to Morocco in World Cup 1998, 3-1 to Croatia in Euro 2020).
Finding ways to get eliminated in the last group game is the most Scottish football thing there is. This is our thing! Beside those two most recent tournaments, almost all the other tournaments are the same story too!
The 1-1 draw with Yugoslavia to exit World Cup 1974 on goal difference without losing a game. The 3-2 win that wasn’t by enough against the Netherlands to exit World Cup 1978 again on goal difference. The 2-2 draw with the Soviet Union to exit World Cup 1982 on, yep, goal difference again. The goalless draw against ten-men-for-89-minutes-Uruguay in World Cup 1986 to finish bottom of the group while they went through as one of the best third place teams. The late winner for Brazil to win 1-0 and then exit World Cup 1990 the next day as one of the worst third place teams. The 1-0 win that wasn’t by enough against Switzerland to exit Euro 96 on goal difference.
Honestly, the only time we haven’t taken it to the third game was Euro 92 and that was probably our best tournament! We’d lost to the holders and the world champions after all and then pumped what was left of the Soviet Union 3-0 to effectively finish fifth!
If you’re wondering why I skipped the two world cups in the 1950s, 1954 was only two games (and we lost them both) and 1958 kinda needed snookers in the last game to get through which we lost 2-1 to France anyway and even if we’d won we wouldn’t have gone through.
But, here we are again. Germany have all but won the group already but the Swiss could still take top spot with a win against the hosts. A draw probably suits them both as they’ll definitely take the top two spots with that and guarantee their spots on the last sixteen. For us to finish second we’d need a six goal difference swing towards us and away from Switzerland, with us getting three of those or we need a seven goal swing, and that just doesn’t seem likely. Not winning on Wednesday pretty much wiped out any realistic chance for us to finish second.
As such, we’re left with a shootout against Hungary where the winner will hope to take one of the best four third place spots – whether that’s us on four points or them on three if they can win by a few as their goal difference isn’t great right now.
A draw between us and the likelihood is we’ll both be out, however even this will depend on what happens in other groups. Chances of going through with just two points are slim, but not impossible. It would need Croatia and Albania both to lose to Italy and Spain respectively on Monday, and that to be coupled with Georgia and Czechia losing to Portugal and Turkey respectively on Wednesday. Not unlikely results, I’m sure you’ll admit.
Yes, it could be Wednesday before we know for sure if we are going home or not.
Now here’s the kicker. Four points might not be enough either! Our negative goal difference thanks to the Germany hammering is a millstone around our neck as no one else has suffered such a bad defeat. If we do beat Hungary but only by a goal, it means we have a -3 goal difference.
Each of the other groups could conceivably finish with the third place team having four points and a better goal difference than us.
Some are easier to do than others. Group B would need Albania to beat Spain and Italy to draw with Croatia. That would put Albania into third on the head to head with Italy and on a goal difference of at least 0 or better. Group C could end with England in third on four points if they lose to Slovenia and Denmark beat Serbia. A narrow defeat and their goal difference is better than ours. Group D, Austria could beat Netherlands and leave them in third on four points. They’d need to lose by four to get to our goal difference. Group E – well they’re all on three points now so two draws will do it and they all have a better goal difference than us, even Ukraine who would finish bottom in this scenario. Group F would need Georgia to beat Portugal and Turkey to draw with Czechia. That would put Georgia in third on four points on the head to head with Turkey with at worst a -1 goal difference.
Geez, imagine Georgia finishing ahead of us after how qualifying went!
If any four of those five scenarios happen in the other groups, Scotland would be one of the worst two third place teams. That might seem unlikely given some of the things needed, but I already listed all the ways Scotland have been eliminated from previous tournaments and this feels exactly l like the kind of thing that would happen to us!
But, there’s not a lot we can do about it now. We need to get the four points by beating Hungary are not relying on the two points scenario. Ideally we win by a few goals and improve our own goal difference, just in case, but I don’t think you chase that and risk not winning the game at all!
So, what about Hungary? Well, I’d love to say this was a change to the narrative, but…
This will be the first competitive meeting of the sides. Just like it was with Morocco in that final group match at World Cup 1998.
The difference this time is that we had never played Morocco even in a friendly. We haven’t actually played them since either. Hungary, on the other hand, are a team we’ve played nine times previously in friendly matches, with Scotland winning three, Hungary winning four and two draws.
The last time we faced them was in March 2018, where a Matt Phillips goal separated the sides in Budapest.
The first time the sides met was back in December 1938, with Scotland securing a 3-1 win at Ibrox. Andy Black, Torrance Gillick and Tommy Walker getting the Scotland goals, Gyorgy Sarosi with theirs. No footage of this one unfortunately.
December 1954 was the next meeting of the sides, this time at Hampden. Jozsef Bozsik and Nandor Hidegkuti gave the visitors a two goal lead before Tommy Ring pulled one back. But Karoly Sandor restored the two goal lead before half time. Bobby Johnstone reduced it once more at the start of the second half, but Sandor Kocsis sealed the 4-2 win with a goal in the final minute.
The teams met again a few months later in May 1955 in Budapest. This time it was a 3-1 win for the Hungarians with Mate Fenyvesi, Nandor Hidegkuti and Sandor Kocsis getting their goals, whist Gordon Smith got ours. No footage of this one either unfortunately.
A third meeting in the 1950s came at Hampden in May 1958, with Jackie Mudie and Mate Fenyvesi ensuring the spoils were shared in a 1-1 draw on this occasion. Again, no footage of this.
Another draw came two years later in Budapest in June 1960. This time an entertaining 3-3 draw came courtesy of goals from Janos Grocos, Lajos Tichy and Karoly Sandor for Hungary, and William Hunter, George Herd and Alex Young for Scotland.
The teams wouldn’t meet again until May 1980 in Budapest. Andreas Torocsik with the early opener for Hungary, but then midway through the second half it got a little crazy. Torocsik got a second goal on the 65th minute, Steve Archibald immediately scored for us a minute later, only for Zoltan Kereki to score for them another minute later! A 3-1 win for the hosts then. Again, no footage of this one.
The remaining to friendly matches both came at Hampden. First on September 1987, Scotland won 2-0 with both goals coming from Ally McCoist. Yet again, no footage of this one!
Then in August 2004, Hungary were 3-0 winners thanks to two goals from Szabolcs Huszti either side of a David Marshall own goal. Got this one, unfortunately.
Bringing us back to present day, Hungary topped their qualifying group without defeat. They won 3-0 at home to Bulgaria, drew 0-0 away to Montenegro, then beat Lithuania 2-0 at home. They then won 2-1 in Serbia and 2-1 at home to Serbia, drew 2-2 away to Lithuania and 2-2 away to Hungary before finishing with a 3-1 win at home to Montenegro.
In their warmup matches for the tournament, they’ve won 1-0 at home to Turkey and 2-0 at home to Kosovo back on March. However, they lost 2-1 away to Ireland before winning 3-0 at home to Israel.
Let’s see that Ireland game then!
Last Saturday they played Switzerland and lost 3–1, the Swiss being a bit more clinical than they were against us.
And then on Wednesday before we faced Switzerland, they played Germany and lost 2-0.
This is their third consecutive Euros appearance. They made the last sixteen in Euro 2016 having topped the group after beating Austria and drawing with Iceland and Portugal, but lost to Belgium once they got there.
They were knocked out of the group stage of Euro 2020 despite being one of the host nations as they lost to Portugal and drew with both France and Germany. To be fair, that’s a group of death and they actually did pretty well in it.
They do have a very good history from the early Euros though. In 1964 they finished third, having lost to eventual winners Spain after extra time in the semi final and beating Denmark after extra time in the third place match. This is back in the day when the final tournament was just the last four and there were two leg knockout rounds before that. They had beaten Wales in the preliminary round, East Germany in the round of sixteen, and France in the quarter final.
They also finished fourth in 1972, losing 1-0 to the Soviet Union in the semi final and then 2-1 to Belgium in the third place match. By this point, qualifying was a group stage that you had to top (which they did ahead of Bulgaria, France and Norway) and then a two leg quarter final before making the final four. In Hungary’s case it was three legs because the first two against Romania were both draws and they had to win the neutral playoff.
They may not be the force they were in the past, but Hungary are having a bit of a revival in recent years. They’re a Nations League A side and have beaten England twice and Germany once in the most recent edition. Indeed they were only a point behind Italy in that group.
I’m including the 4-0 humping of England here as a warning to Scotland for just what Hungary are capable of doing, and not at all as a chance to laugh at England. Nope. You do have to click it to go watch it on YouTube though as it doesn’t like being embedded here.
Hungary will want to finish this group stage with a win and hope it’s enough to take them through as a best third place team. They didn’t give a good account of themselves against Switzerland and felt they could have done better. They think they were hard done by against Germany with VAR favouring the hosts in the opening goal when they thought there was a clear foul in the build up. So they’ll want to set the record straight against Scotland and they’ll want to do what they can to try and make the knockout stages.
But we also want to change the narrative. As I said at the start, we’ve heard this story too many times. We’ve been here before and been on the plane home after it every single time. This is our thing, building up the hope for the final game before having it snatched away from us again. Glorious failure was a phrase coined for the Scottish national team.
Let’s not do that again. Let’s make it no longer our thing. Let’s change the record and play a new song. Let’s play as we can, as we did to get to this tournament in the first place, maybe get a bit of luck for once and find ourselves on the right side of that narrow line between qualification and elimination. Let’s win our first tournament match since Switzerland in 1996. Let’s get to the knockout stages of a major tournament for the first time in our history.
Let’s do this Scotland!
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