The 2022 FIFA World Cup starts this week. Excited? Yes? No? I can understand the feeling regardless of how you answer that.
Let’s get this out of the way first. This World Cup is in entirely the wrong country for a variety of reasons, at entirely the wrong time of year for a World Cup, and the host nation got it in the first place for all the wrong reasons as well. I am not getting into any of that here, enough has been written about it by many others and I’m sure it’s been mentioned many times on the podcast as well. Let’s just acknowledge the elephant in the room and let it stand over there in the corner while we focus on the core of the World Cup.
The show-piece tournament of international football.
It is, of course, disappointing that Scotland once again failed to qualify – particularly given the position we put ourselves in to reach the playoffs and had more or less turned Hampden into a fortress again… only for us to completely fluff our lines in June and not turn up against Ukraine. So, just as we have done for the five world cups that have already taken place since France 98, we’ll be watching on from afar once more.
Actually, this is extending our longest period without going to the World Cup since the tournament started in 1930. Our first time there was in 1954, twenty four years after it had first started, the same length of time we’ve been off the big stage now. Admittedly, that was only four World Cups that we missed due to the Second World War removing the 1942 and 1946 editions from the calendar, not quite the now six that we’re missing out on. The gap between our second appearance in 1958 and our third appearance in 1974 only saw us miss three World Cups in that sixteen year period. 1974 of course became the first of five in a row where we qualified, easily our best run of appearances, and we actually made six of the seven between 1974 and our eighth and to-date final appearance in 1998.
So, we’re not there, but thirty two other countries are. There are the usual mix of Europeans and South Americans who will fancy their chances to win the tournament, whilst those from the other confederations will be aiming to become the first from outside the big two to win the whole tournament.
It’s amazing to think how few teams have actually won it. There’s only been two new winners in my lifetime – France in 1998 and Spain in 2010 – and that took number of winners up to just eight. Uruguay won the first in 1930 and then again in 1950, England won the one they hosted, while both Italy and Germany have won four each – Germany winning three of those as West Germany – and our course Brazil are the most successful with five.
Is there any hope for a new winner from Africa, Asia or North America? Probably not. The host nation Qatar will likely be one to watch to see what might happen, but as one of the lowest ranked teams at the World Cup they won’t be expected to do much – although they did win the Asian Cup in 2019 so who knows. The last time the World Cup was in Asia in 2002, the Koreans got all the way to the semis – although let’s just say they rode their luck in doing so…
What of the rest of Asia? Well, Saudi Arabia are ranked even lower than Qatar while Iran are actually the highest ranked Asian team at the tournament. Japan, who have less Scottish interest than some would have expected given the contingent at Celtic have only supplied Daizen Maeda to the squad in the end, are four places below Iran. Korea are a few more places further back, whilst Australia struggled to even get to the tournament before eventually coming through the intercontinental playoff.
Mind you, Australia do have the most Scottish based players in their squad. Of the thirteen SPFL players that are in the world cup squads, seven of them are Aussies. Three of the seven, Nathaniel Atkinson, Kye Rowles and Cameron Devlin, play for Hearts. There is also St Mirren’s Keanu Baccus, Dundee United’s Aziz Behich, Hibernian’s Martin Boyle and Celtic’s Aaron Mooy in there. That’s a fair chunk! Almost guaranteed to get knocked out at the group stages with that much Scottish influence!
Africa was always a continent that promised much but never seemed able to deliver. The earliest World Cup I can remember is Italia 90, and Cameroon were a revelation they’re getting to the quarter finals before bowing out at the hands of England. Nigeria came along in 1994 but lost out to finalists Italy in the last sixteen. They lost out to Denmark at the same stage in 1998, whilst in 2002 the name on everyone’s lips was that of Senegal. They lost narrowly to Turkey in the quarter finals. Ghana then took over, reaching the last sixteen in 2006 and then losing out to that Suarez punch off the line in the 2010 quarter finals when the finals were hosted in the African continent. After that though, Nigeria and Algeria made the last sixteen in 2014 but no African side got out of the groups in 2018.
No one really expects much from any African side this time round either. Senegal are there again, and the highest ranked African side in the tournament. They are joined by Morocco, Tunisia, Cameroon and Ghana who have all been here before. But Ghana are the lowest ranked team in the whole tournament. These teams aren’t without some star players, but let’s face it you’re almost looking at who isn’t going to be there more when you see names like Nigeria, Egypt, Coat d’Ivoire are missing.
North America has the usual suspects in Mexico and the United States – although the Americans are returning after missing out four years ago – and yes there’s Costa Rica in there too. But the real excitement is more around Canada after they won the final group ahead of the other three to qualify for just their second world cup – the other being 1986 where they finished dead last. If they score a goal in Qatar it will be a new high for them. Oh and David Wotherspoon of St Johnstone is in their squad so there’s some local excitement there as well! So it’s not just Celtic’s Cameron Carter-Vickers in that American squad of interest from Scotland in the teams from North America.
There’s no country in that list you look at and think they could win the tournament. Well, there is, but I said I was going to focus on the football and not corruption so PLEASE don’t let money dictate the only thing that’s actually good about this tournament. It’s already smothering it as it is.
Let’s be honest, the winner of this tournament is going to come from either South America or Europe like it always does. And even then there’s probably a few we can discount. Of the four teams from South America, I’m not betting on Ecuador or Uruguay doing much. It’s the other two big hitters that will really fancy their chances in this.
Brazil and Argentina both come to this tournament unbeaten in qualifying. Okay, so they only played against each other once and didn’t bother playing the other game as they had both qualified, but that one was a draw and they literally didn’t lose to anyone else either. Both are a force to be reckoned with as they always are, with Argentina also the reigning Copa America champions having beaten Brazil in the final of that tournament.
But then again, South America didn’t have a great tournament in Russia four years ago – they only had two quarter finalists and neither made it to the semis. If you go back to 2014 you find the Germans took care of both of the big names – no one will ever forget that 7-1 semi final, although no doubt Neymar would love to use this tournament to put that one to bed given he didn’t feature in it and had to watch on in horror from the side lines. Meanwhile I’m sure Lionel Messi would love to take that final step to emulate Diego Maradona and lift the big trophy having struggled with injury in the latter games in 2014 just as it looked like he might take the team all the way.
Those two are coming into this tournament on good form, but in Europe it’s almost bizarre. The holders from 2018, France, have to deal with the talk of the holders jinx – something they know all too well as they started it! When they won in 1998 and beat the holders Brazil in the final, they then failed to get out of the group in 2002. Brazil won that one and then… well, they lost in the quarter finals in 2006 which isn’t quite so bad for most teams but for them is pretty poor.
But then the pattern picks up again. The 2006 winners Italy not only failed to get out of the group in 2010 but also failed to get out of the group again in 2014 and have since failed to even qualify in either 2018 or 2022! Ouch! Spain won it in 2010 and then, yep, lost in the groups in 2014. And the 2014 winners Germany? Yep, out in the group stages in 2018.
To be fair, retaining the title is almost unheard of. In the entire history of the world cup, it’s been done twice and that was the Italians in the 1930s and more recently (if you can call it that) by Brazil in 1962 after winning their first title in 1958.
So France have that to contend with, but also have their own form to contend with as well. They had a poor Euros last summer getting out of a difficult group by topping it only to then completely bin a lead against Switzerland in the last sixteen and go out on penalties. Mbappe couldn’t hit a cow’s backside with a banjo last summer, which really didn’t help their cause and ultimately it was his penalty miss that knocked them out. Throw in a disappointing Nations League campaign where they finished third behind Croatia and Denmark and just a point ahead of Austria and you have to wonder if their mentality is right because they certainly have the ability.
Croatia and Denmark are kind of the opposite end of this. Yes, that’s the beaten finalists from four years ago in Croatia, but they only just got through their Euros group by… you remember, outscoring Callum McGregor… only to lose to Spain after extra time despite a remarkable comeback in regular time in that game. They have Luka Modric obviously, as well as Borna Barisic and Josip Juranovic that are well known in these parts, but could they be serious contenders to win the tournament?
And of course we know all about Denmark. Croatia might have won at Hampden last year, but Denmark didn’t – it was their only flaw in qualifying for this World Cup. They might have finished behind Croatia in the Nations League, but they did beat France home and away and wouldn’t you know it they have them in the group stages of this World Cup as well. They were everyone’s second team at the Euros last year after what happened with Christian Eriksen – it’s fantastic that he’s in the squad for this tournament – and after that third group game they were really exciting to watch as well, but they fell just short against England – or rather Sterling fell rather easily and got a dodgy penalty to see off Denmark in the semi final.
There’s others in Europe that seem to follow this same pattern. Big names have struggled lately. Germany were bad but not England bad in the Nations League, after losing to that same England at Euro 2020. England, the Euro 2020 runners-up, actually got relegated in the Nations League they were so bad.
I know, I know, I’m laughing too, don’t worry. It was so delicious that they got relegated as we got promoted, wasn’t it?
There’s Belgium for whom there always seems to be massive expectation on them only for them to not quite get over the line. They finished behind the Netherlands in the Nations League after losing to Italy in the quarter finals of the Euros. Actually, given that Belgium also lost to France in the last World Cup, the last team to knock Belgium out of a major tournament and not go on to win that tournament was Wales at Euro 2016!
Speaking of Wales…
If North America has Canada, then Europe has Wales. They’re back on the big stage for the first time since 1958 – and you thought Scotland’s wait was bad – and it was pretty much Gareth Bale who carried them there. Will they do much? Well that group of England, Iran and the United States seems like they might have a chance to get out of it, but can they go further? Doesn’t seem likely. They do have Dylan Levitt of Dundee United in their squad, so that’s your thirteenth SPFL player now if you’re keeping track.
Do you know who definitely won’t do anything? Poland. Scotland not qualifying for the World Cup since 1998 left a bit of a hole in my life, but Poland stepped in and helped fill it. Except they have a habit of doing it too well, as they have reached the World Cup in 2002, 2006 and 2018 and failed to get out of the group on each of those three occasions. Of the four Euros they’ve qualified for, they failed to get out of the group in three of them. So okay, it falls down a bit when you point out they made the quarter finals of Euro 2016, but even that was a disappointment for me as they really should have knocked Portugal out in that match and they only went on to win the whole thing! I honestly will not be surprised at all if they fail to progress this year as well because that’s just how my life works I think.
Actually, that’s not fair, I’m also a bit Irish and they’re quite good at getting out of group stages when they actually qualifying for things! They’ve never failed to do it! But they’re not here, so… moving on…
If you’re looking for European teams that are in form going into this tournament then you’re probably looking at Spain or the Netherlands. Two teams with plenty of World Cup experience, the two met in the final in 2010 after all, and they both won their Nations League groups recently. That’s the kind of form that’s comparable with the form of Brazil and Argentina. Spain only lost to Italy on penalties at the Euros, while the Netherlands have been bang on form since their exit from that tournament at the hands of the Czechs in the last sixteen. Spain only lost away to Sweden in qualifying, whilst the Dutch only lost in Turkey. They’re both consistently good.
The only teams I haven’t mentioned now are Portugal, Serbia and Switzerland. Portugal might want to take a note from Manchester United about how much better you can be when you don’t play Cristiano Ronaldo, while Serbia and Switzerland – who topped the group with Italy in it and played their part in keeping them out of this tournament – are probably battling out for the second spot behind Brazil in that group. That might actually be one of the best games of the group stages when it comes to it!
Just one more point on Serbia – they got here by beating Portugal in Lisbon in a game they had to win with a last minute goal. It’s kinda cool that the man who scored that goal is the exact same man whose penalty was saved by David Marshall to deny them a place at Euro 2020 – Aleksandar Mitrovic. There’s your redemption story!
I honestly can’t pick a winner on the face of it. If I try to do the usual post-it note job (because I’m not a smoker and “back of a fag packet” never made sense in my context) then I honestly come up with different answers from one day to the next.
I asked the podcast group what they think. Josh says the Dutch will win it. Erin has gone for Argentina. McGill reckons England are going to finish third in their group. Author John says Denmark will come fourth.
As for me? Well here’s how today’s predictions looks – and feel free to point and laugh when this is nothing like it turns out.
Group winners: Netherlands, England, Argentina, Denmark, Spain, Belgium, Brazil, Portugal
Group runners-up: Qatar, Iran, Mexico, France, Germany, Croatia, Switzerland, Uruguay
After that, I’m thinking Netherlands, Argentina, Spain, Brazil, England, Denmark, Germany and Switzerland in the quarter finals – although I’ve flipped on the Germany v Belgium game so many times now! You could then potentially have two very tasty semi finals with Argentina v Brazil and England v Germany. If I’m right up to that point, I’m going to go with a repeat of the 1986, 1990 and 2014 final (if as mentioned before you count West Germany as just Germany) and then I’m going to agree with Erin and say it’s about time Argentina came out on top of that again.
Even Josh said he’d love to see Messi win it, and I definitely wouldn’t argue with that.
There’s something kind of fitting about that too. I think one of the reasons I’m excited about this World Cup is it’s because it’s my son’s first proper World Cup. He’s almost exactly the same age I was when Italia 90 came around, and that was my first proper one. He doesn’t remember 2018, he was too young. He’s well into football now and you can bet I’ve made sure he has a wallchart up in his bedroom! Earlier this year I took him to his first Scotland game and it just so happened that it was the same as my first Scotland game – Scotland v Poland – so if he ends up with the same World Cup final as me then that wouldn’t surprise me at this point!
But it still feels a bit weird. I remember the build up to Italia 90 because my first match was that Scotland v Poland game. It was a warm-up game for that tournament, a week after the domestic season had finished up with the Scottish Cup final. It was another two and a half weeks after that game before the tournament proper started. This time round, a week after domestic football finishes up we have the actual World Cup matches. It just doesn’t seem enough time for the squads to truly prepare sadly. We’ve been more or less robbed of those warm-up friendlies this time round, although some teams are playing this midweek – including Scotland in Turkey in… Dykebar I think?
No, sorry, Diyarbakir. Not even close.
If you’re not watching this World Cup, I get it. But I hope you’re missing out on a great festival of football. World Cups are only every four years – well, four and a half this time – and by the time 2026 comes around hopefully we’re not talking about any more controversy, and instead we’re all buzzing as Scotland are back there for the first time in twenty eight years.
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